Quantcast
Channel: OCSN » Chuck Pagano
Viewing all articles
Browse latest Browse all 23

Jim Irsay Said that Ryan Grigson Has Been Better than Bill Polian After Four Years in Indianapolis

0
0

Jim Irsay pulled a shocking reversal in Indianapolis, electing to keep all the principals, after plenty of reported discord between GM Ryan Grigson and head coach Chuck Pagano. It was reported over the weekend that Pagano was likely out if the Colts didn’t make the playoffs.

Instead, Grigson and Pagano both signed extensions and are going to try to work this out for the kids.

colts did the thing where you should really get a divorce but instead decide to have a 2nd kid.

— Fantasy Douche (@FantasyDouche) January 5, 2016

That didn’t come without much behind-the-scenes wrangling, some of which we’ll probably never see the light of day because everyone will play nice for awhile, though there is one reported rumor that Irsay was negotiating with Sean Payton’s reps (Payton, of course, is still in New Orleans at the moment) but that fell through before this about face.

This is an interesting one for several reasons. You could justify it by raw number of wins and results. But things just feel like they have underperformed collectively as a group, from filling the roster around Luck to frequent horrible games, relative to other “good” teams.

#Colts owner Jim Irsay: “Bill Polian is going into the Hall of Fame. His first four years, Ryan (Grigson) has outdone him.”

— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) January 5, 2016

Let’s examine that. The Colts went 3-13 in year 1 of the Polian era, in Peyton Manning’s rookie year. They also dropped to 6-10 with injuries in year 4, somewhat similar to this year. So, if you just count wins and losses and don’t look at context, then yes, I suppose that Grigson has outdone Polian.

First, let’s talk about the respective schedules and environments. The Colts would move to the AFC South in 2002, in year 5 of the Polian era. That move would prove quite profitable and it has generally been a division the Colts have dominated, and it has been the weakest division on average over the last four years.

On the other hand, prior to 2001 the Colts were in the AFC East and it was one of the toughest, most balanced divisions at the time. Do you know how many of the other teams in the AFC East from 1998-2001 finished with a losing record? Two. The Patriots in 2000 in Belichick’s first year, and the 2001 Buffalo Bills.

Meanwhile, three non-Colts teams from the AFC South have avoided losing records (Texans in 2012, 2014, and 2015).

So when you add in the strength of schedule and margin of victory, the 1998-2001 Colts had a +1.2 rating, and the 2012-2015 Colts had a -0.8 rating. The Polian Colts were about 2 points better once we account for schedule.

So that in part explains the wins/losses difference. The other? The current version of the Colts under Grigson/Pagano is 26-8 in games decided by 8 or less in the regular season. That seems like an unsustainable rate of winning close games (and yes, that includes the loss to New England this year involving the fake punt). Conversely, the Colts have lost 10 games over the last four seasons by 21 or more points. The only teams with more over that span are the Titans (14) and Raiders (11, but none this year). The Jaguars also have 10 such losses–you might again notice the AFC South theme.

That’s more blowout losses than the Seahawks, Patriots, Broncos, Steelers, and Packers combined–the kind of teams that I think the Colts believed themselves to be competing with, not the Titans and Jaguars.

So what? Well, I think it’s fair to question how much influence Pagano has over that close game record and blowout mark. But for a GM, there is little influence once personnel decisions are made, over what happens on one play at the end of a game. The GM puts the personnel in place to be competitive. The schedule and performance in close games is masking that quite a bit. It’s ridiculous to say, when looking at the drafts and acquisitions, that Grigson has outdone Polian. But if your process is just looking at wins and losses and not the context, great decision and statement, Jim Irsay.

[photo via USA Today Sports Images]


Viewing all articles
Browse latest Browse all 23

Latest Images

Trending Articles





Latest Images